Identifying Discretionary Fiscal Policy Reactions with Real‐Time Data

We propose a method of identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions using real‐time data. Automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy is contingent on the information that policy makers have in real time. We can compute a real‐time measurement error by comparing the first release of GDP data with later revisions. Discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by this measurement error, whereas automatic fiscal policy is not. We use this identification approach to test the central identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti’s (2002) seminal structural vector autoregression (VAR). According to this assumption, fiscal policy makers do not react to GDP developments contemporaneously in a discretionary fashion. We find that government expenditure is adjusted upward if GDP growth in real time is lower than true GDP. This suggests that fiscal policy makers use short‐term funds to buy goods and services in response to their perception of GDP dynamics.     

Designing intergovernmental fiscal transfers for conservation: The case of REDD+ revenue distribution to local governments in Indonesia

A REDD+ scheme would involve the transfer of financial resources to forested developing countries taking part in it. This paper simulates different approaches to the design of intergovernmental fiscal transfers (IFTs), a possible means to channel a REDD+ international payment to local governments which, in several countries, have a certain degree of authority over forest management. Using Indonesia as a case study, the cost-reimbursement and the derivation approaches are tested. It is demonstrated that both approaches could be used. Using the cost-reimbursement approach, localities with more degraded forests would receive a higher compensation per unit of carbon emission reduction than districts with primary forests. Avoiding further conversion of logged-over areas is associated with higher opportunity costs when compared with preventing the conversion of primary forests. In contrast, the derivation approach sets a fixed percentage and rate to distribute REDD+ revenues and ignores the opportunity costs of REDD+ incurred by local governments. The distribution of REDD+ revenues to eligible local governments is based on an assumed market price of carbon credits from REDD+. This paper concludes by discussing the implications of the findings for designing the distribution of REDD+ revenues, both for Indonesia and more generically for other developing countries.     

Structural reforms and fiscal adjustments: policy options for the euro area

This paper analyses the effects of structural reform and fiscal consolidation policies in the Euro Area using a stylized new-Keynesian model. A number of issues are focused upon: (i) the modelling and effects of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, and (ii) evaluation of alternative reform and consolidation scenarios, including their joint implementation.     

县乡财政困境与财政立宪主义

中国县乡财政困难背后蕴含着深刻的政府与社会、政府之间的关系的矛盾。以往在技术层面上修修补补式的改革不能从根本上解决问题。因此,本文主张采取财政立宪的制度创新思路。包括两个方面的内容,一方面是通过完善法治和建立有效的民主决策监督机制,实现纳税人对政府的根本约束和监督;另一方面是规范政府间的财政分配关系,抑制政府间的过分自利倾向,实现政府间的合理分权与制衡。     

破解财政分税制改革难题的逆向思维——三级政府三级财政三级分税

我国实施财政分税制,是适应政治、经济、财政等大环境,深化改革的必然结果和正确选择。1994年实行分税制,划分了中央与地方之间的财权,并希望通过逐步深化改革来解决省以下各级的财力分配问题。十余年过去了,省以下的分税制改革没有取得任何实质性进展,由此导致非规范化运作的负作用逐步放大。分税制改革无法深化,是因为遭遇到在现有体制下无法破解的“难题”。要解开这一“难题”,必须进行体制创新,将五级政府、五级财政“扁平化”为三级。中央、省、县三级政府三级财政三级分税,是我国分税制的出路,也有利于解决我国政府体制、财政体制中诸多深层次问题。     

内生经济增长理论与财政政策的一般性研究

内生增长理论是现代经济增长理论中的一个核心内容。从长期经济增长所依赖的路径来看,人力资本和技术进步作为经济增长的内生因素,可以弥补因其他要素收益递减而带来经济增长停滞这一局面。如果经济增长率是由内生因素决定的,那么财政政策对经济增长的影响将再次成为人们关注的焦点。在国家财政政策干预下,以内生增长为动力,逐步形成有利于经济增长的物质资本投资向人力资本和技术进步等方面投资的转换机制。     

多级政府级次下的经济增长与财政支出规模优化研究

笔者在巴罗经济增长模型的基础上,建立了一个两级政府提供公共物品的经济增长数理模型,说明政府级次划分对经济增长绩效的影响.并采用计量分析的方法,分别对我国中央政府与地方政府财政事权划分的合理性、最优事权划分标准进行了检验与测算.     

商业周期与区际经济一体化——自然壁垒、经济结构与政策

文章着重从商业周期角度来对我国区际一体化状况进行实证研究,即主要从"市场自然分割"与"政策与经济结构"两方面因素来探索商业周期的区域差异.总体来看,我国所有地区在两个时间样本期间(1992～1997年与1998～2004年)的就业和产出周期同步性均有所增加,说明商业周期的演进与我国经济体制改革基本同步;文章还分析了影响商业周期的不同解释变量,结果显示:控制变量的距离、规模与周期存在显著的相关性,而体现"东西边界"的外生变量则在绝大部分回归中则显著为负,说明在我国东西部之间可能存在一道明显的"区域分界线",阻碍了大区域间的经济联系;此外,樊刚指数对区域周期的解释具有两面性,经济结构差异越合理,商业周期越走向同步性,而财政政策差异和贸易密度差异是我国商业周期的波动因素.     

Can Federal Grants Mitigate Social Competition?

The European economic integration leads to increasing mobilityof factors, thereby threatening the stability of social transferprograms. This article investigates the possibility to achieveby means of voluntary matching grants both the optimal allocationof factors and the optimal level of redistribution in the presenceof factor mobility. We use a fiscal competition model a la Wildasin(1991) in which states differ in their technologies and preferencesfor redistribution. We first investigate a simple process inwhich the federal authority progressively raises the matchinggrants to the district choosing the lowest transfer and alldistricts respond optimally to the resulting change in transfersall around. This process is shown to increase efficiency ofboth production and redistribution. However, it does not guaranteethat all districts gain, nor that an efficient level of redistributionis attained. Assuming complete information among districts,we derive the willingness of each district to match the contributionof other districts and we show that the aggregate willingnessto pay for matching rates converges to zero when both the efficientlevel of redistribution and the efficient allocation of factorsare achieved. We then describe an adjustment process for thematching rates that will lead districts to the efficient outcomeand guarantee that everyone will gain. (JEL Classification:H23, H70)     

积极财政政策与私人投资关系的区域差异——基于中国东、中、西部面板数据的检验与分析

本文利用面板数据模型分别考察了积极财政政策对我国东、中、西部私人投资增长和差异的影响.分析表明,积极财政政策对东、中、西部的私人投资具有一定的正向影响,从而证实了积极财政政策的有效性.本文通过地方财政各项支出对私人投资产生的影响分析,表明东、中、西部要根据自身的经济发展水平来安排财政支出的结构.